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Good Thursday Morning. Here’s the rundown of this week’s Sports Business Playbook:

• 📰 This Week’s Topic: The College Football Playoff Committee made the most controversial decision of its nine-year run on Sunday, choosing to leave undefeated ACC Champion Florida State out of the top four because of the perceived future impact their star quarterback’s injury would have on their competitiveness. The CFP Committee's Decision is both shocking and unsurprising at the same time. Here's what it says about the current state of college football.

• 🍸️ Impress Your Friends at Cocktail Party: Want to show off your sports knowledge in a public setting but don’t have time to read the deep dive? Hit the “Impress Your Friends at Cocktail Party” section at the bottom for a CliffsNotes of this week’s topic

• 🤯 “Whoa of the Week”: Coco Gauff’s the highest paid women’s athlete in the world

• 💪 Weekly Reminders that Sports are Awesome: An incredible bond between an NBA player and his high school coach, and NFL receivers going above and beyond for their end zone celebrations

Hey team,

As most of you know, the college football regular season has wrapped up, and the College Football Playoff Selection Committee has determined that these four schools will be vying for the national championship in early January:

1. 〽️ichigan (13-0; Big Ten Champion)

2. Washington (13-0; Pac-12 [RIP] Champion)

3. Texas (12-1; Big 12 Champion)

4. Alabama (12-1; SEC Champion)

The selection this year was the most challenging, and also the most controversial, in the CFP’s nine-year history.

There were six teams with legitimate claims for being included in the top four. It became apparent late Saturday night that Michigan and Washington had secured their places, and the final two spots would come down to Alabama, Florida State, and Texas.

Each school had a strong case, and the committee was in a no win situation because one team was going to end up with the short end of the stick and be upset regardless.

The committee decided to select Texas and Alabama, and for the first time in CFP history, an undefeated Power 5 conference champion — Florida State (13-0; ACC Champion) — has been left out of the top four.

The ultimate deciding factor for why: due to the season-ending injury of star quarterback Jordan Travis a month ago and Florida State’s resulting offensive struggles in its final games after (that they still won, mind you), the committee did not believe that FSU could legitimately compete for a national title.

As CFP committee chair Boo Corrigan said after the field was revealed, “Florida State is a different team. You look at who they are as a team without Jordan Travis — they are a different team.”

The selection committee has not been immune to controversy for its rankings during its nearly decade-long run. But, this decision to predict future performance vs. evaluating the resumes that each team has built over the course of the season is a new paradigm.

And it’s the latest spotlight on a harsh reality that we are both shocked by but also resigned to: College football is an entertainment business product first; sport second.

Whose Title is It, Anyway?

Because of its conference-based structure and lack of uniform record evaluation like the professional leagues, college football has always had trouble picking who will compete for a championship.

Through 1997, the teams who finished first in various polls — i.e., Associated Press writers poll, coaches poll — were crowned champion. This often resulted in chaos and multiple teams being awarded the championship depending on which poll you placed the most stock in.

In 1998, the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) formula was implemented to fix this issue. This calculation weighed the coaches’ and writers’ polls, computer rankings, strength of schedule, losses and quality wins to determine the top two teams. Those two would then play each other to decide a champion.

The problem here: it felt too impartial and objective, particularly in an era where technology was not as advanced (and as accepted) as today. In 2003, the media was so up in arms about the BCS’ decision to leave out USC and pit LSU vs. Oklahoma that the writers disregarded the BCS results and appointed USC as the AP poll national champion that year.

Following continued controversies and several threatened lawsuits from government representatives looking to score political points, the college football world turned to what it felt was the “Goldilocks” solution in 2014: the College Football Playoff.

The CFP enacted the following:

1. Expanded the championship-eligible teams from two to four

2. Created a semifinal and final format

3. Combined the past two systems while also adding a 13-person, rotating committee of former coaches and players, current athletic directors, and retired media members to make the final decisions on who “the best four teams in the country are.”

The goal of this committee was to apply a rules-based evaluation protocol to a process that is really more of an art than science given the unevenness of college football.

When you think about it, the system’s setup will inherently create friction. There are five conference champions from the high end conferences (Power 5, as they’re known) of subjectively varying quality, other potentially deserving teams from those Power 5 conferences who just may not have won the conference championship, and a whole other set of upstart teams competing in lower-level conferences (Group of 5) that are making a case for a spot.

So, when faced with a debate about who those four teams are, the committee follows a set of guidelines for ranking the teams, as noted on their official site:

1. Conference championships won

2. Strength of schedule

3. Head‐to‐head competition (if it occurred)

4. Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)

5. Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.

While these protocols are used each year, the committee intentionally never discloses a formula or specific methodology for how they arrived at these decisions and if they will be used in the same way next year. This helps them to navigate the unknowns and randomness of each year without getting pinned down by precedent.

The first four reasons above are often cited as reasons for why past decisions have been made — and why the Big 12 added a conference championship game after TCU and Baylor got snubbed in 2014 — but we have not seen the last guideline about future performance used as explicitly as it was this year.

This application of the concept angered many, and for good reason.

But the issue here is not if they can do that — as stated above, it’s been one of their criteria for nearly 10 years. The question is more about why.

More Blowouts than a Dry Bar

College football is the second highest rated TV property in the US, with viewership for marquee matchups like Michigan-Ohio State or Alabama-Georgia generating nearly 20 million viewers.

As you all know from being avid readers of past Sports Business Playbook editions focused on sports media, ratings and viewership are what drive demand for these types of sports rights and ultimately the lucrative contracts that come with them.

So, TV money rules the roost with college football. The seismic media contracts at the conference level are major revenue drivers for the schools — and, ironically, also one of the root causes of the conference realignment chaos from earlier this year.

Interestingly, the College Football Playoff sits outside of the NCAA and is also “managed” by the conferences. This enables the playoff to have its own TV rights deal, which is with longtime college football partner ESPN for $470 million per year.

While the semifinal and championship ratings are excellent when compared to other properties, the CFP has a potential problem that keeps their executives up at night: blowouts.

In the nine years of the CFP, there have been 27 games total — two semifinals and one final each year. Including Georgia’s 65-7 dismantling of TCU in the championship last year, 19 of the 27 games (70%) have been decided by two or more scores.

Blowouts are boring and do not captivate audiences, which means lower viewership. If the trend persists, it could influence the next TV deal negotiations that will be up for grabs in 2026. Given the challenges in the media rights market right now, the CFP needs to ensure it has the best product possible to ensure top of market value.

Putting this into practice, when faced with a challenging decision for the fourth team this year, the CFP committee chose the school — Alabama — that would create the most entertaining games; not necessarily the team that deserved it the most — FSU.

To be clear, I am not promoting the popular Twitter conspiracy theories that ESPN influenced the selection, this is Disney giving a middle finger to Florida and Governor Ron DeSantis after giving them hell over Disney World, or that the SEC has its thumb on the scales.

Here’s what I do believe: whether it was explicitly said or subconsciously understood, the CFP committee is aware of the blowouts dynamic and wanted to hedge against that.

Just look at the “look ahead” betting lines heading into the selection show this past Sunday. Vegas had Michigan favored by 10+ points over FSU. They are favored by 1.5 against Alabama.

Who knows how this year’s games will play out (Michigan 34; Alabama 24 — don’t @ me), and there is a precedent — Ohio State in 2014; Alabama in 2018 — for backup quarterbacks succeeding in the CFP. But, it’s likely we’ll see a much more competitive game between the teams at full strength.

Again, it may be “wrong” in many people’s eyes, but it is not “incorrect.” It’s in the CFP’s evaluation criteria, and there are legitimate reasons for how they broke this tie.

It’s more so just jarring to see the latest example of a purely money-based decision (of which none goes to the players to themselves) shake the foundation of a sport that was often romanticized for having the best regular season because every game essentially mattered.

And the aftershocks are expected reverberate throughout the college landscape.

Well…Now What?

Even with the College Football Playoff expansion next year, the fallout from this year’s decision is deep and far-reaching.

As you can imagine, Florida State is not happy. Their reward for completing a perfect season while having to play their second and third string quarterbacks in high leverage games — which some would say strengthens, not hinders, their playoff case — is to be on the outside looking in at the CFP.

FSU athletic director Michael Alford released a doozy of a statement online, with the first lines being: "the consequences of giving in to a narrative of the moment are destructive, far reaching, and permanent. Not just for Florida State, but college football as a whole."

The existential question FSU has for the college football powers that be: what else do we have to do?

What that “else” may be for FSU is something they are already acutely aware of and have been publicly talking about since August.

As evidenced by the conference realignment fiasco earlier this year, college football is quickly consolidating into a three-tiered system:

1. The Big Ten and the SEC, which are now mega conferences that have snapped up premium schools and are expanding their geographic reach

2. The Big 12 and the ACC, which are taking on the B-list schools from the Pac-12 in order to survive and maintain relevance

3. Group of 5 conferences and the zombie Pac-12 — Oregon State and Washington State

Florida State, Clemson, and other proud football schools in the ACC look at this dynamic and recognize that they may be in the “have not’s” group if they don’t act. They’re allegedly missing out on as much $30 million per year in media rights fees by not joining the Big Ten or SEC, and whether it’s right or not, they do not believe this snub would have happened if they were in one of the mega conferences.

So, what is their incentive to stay in the ACC?

There would be high demand for these schools in the mega conferences, and they could find the funds — whether from donors, the sports media companies, or even private equity — to pay the hefty exit fees from their current conference.

This dilemma, of course, brings us to the ACC leadership. Having watched the Pac-12 implode just a few months ago for similar reasons, they’re quickly circling the wagons.

Commissioner Jim Phillips also released a strong statement in support of FSU, and his team’s number one goal at this point is to do everything they can to support their angry cash cows while also assuring them that their long-term future is secure (and lucrative) in the ACC.

Despite these efforts, it’s hard to see how this doesn’t end up with the football powers from both the ACC and the other lower tier conferences (who are all panicking, too) taking a “if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em” approach and protecting themselves by joining a mega conference in the coming years.

We’re heading for consolidation of the top schools whether we like it or not.

We’ve Jumped the Shark

In closing, I think what’s ultimately the most frustrating part of this situation is not the runaway commercialization of college football. That’s just business and the current state of American consumer trends.

What rings the most hollow and is causing the most harm is the uneven application of where “it’s a business” and where “it’s about student athletes getting a good education.”

The lucrative media contracts and ticket sales that float this entire multi-billion dollar system are built on the backs of 18 to 22-year old men, and they don’t see a dime of it due to archaic rules that haven’t been applicable in decades.

Amateurism, at least in the revenue generating sports, is gone. Has been for a long time. Yet the tap dancing by the NCAA and school and conference executives continues.

This selective interpretation is what has created the Frankenstein system we currently have where NIL collectives are luring players from other schools into the transfer portal, teams are traveling coast-to-coast for conference games, and coaches are getting paid $70+ million buyouts after getting fired.

It’s time for an overhaul. Collective bargaining. Salaries. Revenue sharing. The whole nine yards.

Some “purists” are worried this will destroy the college football system as we know it.

Is that really such a bad thing, though? The current state doesn’t look so great to most of us. At least we’re accepting the system for what it is — an entertainment product — and providing some semblance of fairness.

If college football is going to become an NFL-lite type product, so be it. We’ll all still show up on Saturday to watch our teams.

But, let’s drop the facade and start addressing the root problems that matter.

🍸️ Impress Your Friends at a Cocktail Party

Want to show off your sports knowledge in a public setting but don’t have time to read the deep dive? This section is the CliffsNotes of this week’s topic

• Opener: The College Football Playoff Committee made the most controversial decision of its nine-year run on Sunday, choosing to leave undefeated ACC Champion Florida State out of the top four because of the perceived future impact their star quarterback’s injury would have on their competitiveness. The CFP Committee's decision is both shocking and unsurprising at the same time.

• Shot: The committee has a series of protocols it follows to help make decisions on rankings. This year, they were faced with a no-win situation where they had three deserving teams and only two remaining spots. At the end, the committee had to choose between Alabama and Florida State. In addition to things like conference championships, strength of schedule, and head to head record, there is also a clause about the “unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.” This is the first time we’ve seen them use this clause so specifically.

• Chaser: Why? TV money rules college football. The CFP has its own media deal with ESPN, and it needs to continue to produce a top flight product for when the next rights deal comes up in 2026. The CFP has a problem with blowouts — nearly 70% of all CFP games have been decided by two scores or more. Whether consciously or subconsciously, the committee is aware of that and felt that Alabama would compete more than Florida State even though FSU probably had a stronger case for a more complete season.

• Chaser: Florida State is, of course, furious. It also could mean that they decide they want to join one of the emerging mega conferences — the Big Ten and SEC — instead of being left on the outside looking in in the ACC. This is a major risk for the ACC, as FSU, Clemson, and other football powers leaving could mean that the conference meets a similar fate to the Pac-12.

• Chaser: This fiasco is the latest issue to plague college sports, and it’s another harsh reminder that the system is broken due to the uneven application of when “it’s a business” and “when it’s about the student athletes.” It’s time for a major overhaul. Now.

🤯 “Whoa” of the Week

Insane, mind-blowing things constantly happen in the sports business world. Here was my favorite of the past week.

1. There is a new highest-paid female athlete in the world, and her name is Coco Gauff.

💪 Weekly Reminder that Sports are Awesome

This newsletter is, of course, mostly centered on the business side of sports and the things that happen off the field. That being said, it’s important to remember why we fell in love with sports in the first place, though.

This section is meant to highlight the amazing things that happened in sports this week that serve as that reminder.

1. Knicks’ Center Mitchell Robinson’s relationship with his high school coach is something special.

2. There is not a more creative group of people on the planet than NFL wide receivers finding new ways to celebrate touchdowns.

Thanks for reading! Let me know what feedback you have.

Also, if you enjoyed this breakdown, please consider sharing it with your friends and network by clicking the social media icons at the top of the newsletter.

Until next time, sports fans!

-Alex