Editor’s Note: Thanks for the great feedback on last week’s edition! Please keep it coming by responding to this email or on social media (LinkedIn, Twitter).

Forwarded this newsletter by someone in your network and want to receive it yourself? Subscribe here 

Good Thursday Morning. Here’s the rundown of this week’s Sports Business Playbook:

• 📰 This Week’s Topic: The impact of Major League Baseball’s new rule changes on the game on and off the field, and what it signals for the league going forward

• 🍸️ Impress Your Friends at Cocktail Party: Want to show off your sports knowledge in a public setting but don’t have time to read the full article? Hit the “Impress Your Friends at Cocktail Party” section at the bottom for a CliffsNotes of this week’s topic

• 🤯 “Whoa of the Week”: MLS does big numbers in El Tráfico, and the Sphere is now alive in Las Vegas.

• 💪 Weekly Reminders that Sports are Awesome: EJ gets his “Call to the Hall.”

Hey team,

Major League Baseball heads into its All-Star break this weekend, and the league’s momentum is at its highest levels in years.

Much of this buzz has been attributed to impact the new rule changes that MLB implemented prior to the 2023 season are having.

There are positive metrics both on the field and off the field to confirm the impact the changes are having, and it’s breathed new life into a league that has been much maligned the last few years with COVID challenges, labor disputes, and concerns that the game is antiquated and trending in the wrong direction.

This week, we dig further into the benefits of the rule changes and why I think this is signal for the MLB to double down on its innovation plans.

Multi-Decade Slump

To set the stage, pause reading this incisive newsletter that you love so dearly and tell all of your friends about, close your eyes, and think of baseball. What words come to mind?

My assumption is that many of you will think of words along the lines of “boring, too long, and a bit out of date.” These words form a broader trend that has plagued baseball the last several decades, as America’s Pastime has fallen from first to third place for America’s favorite sport over the last 50 years.

It’s had an impact on the business side as well. As noted earlier this year, attendance has dropped significantly over the last 15 years, and the average age of the fanbase is considerably older than other professional sports.

MLB Total Attendance By Year

• 2007: 80 million

• 2010: 73 million

• 2022: 65 million

Average Fan Age By Sports League

• MLS: 40

• NBA: 42

• NHL: 49

• NFL: 50

• MLB: 57

To be clear, baseball is not in immediate financial trouble and many of the top clubs are making more money than ever before. But these trends are cause for concern for the long-term health of the game, and the league has been feeling the need to do something to try to right the ship.

Long Games, Long Term Problems

There are myriad reasons for why these trends have emerged, but some of it can be attributed to two key aspects:

1. The excessive length of baseball games (data below)

2. The lack of in-play action that occurs within said games

Average Length Of Game (American sports with 82+ games)

• NHL (82 games): 2 hours and 20 minutes

• NBA (82 games): 2 hours 15 minutes

• MLB (162 games): 3 hours and 3 minutes

Everyone focuses on the first one (and for good reason), but the second aspect has to be addressed as well in order to drive more attention to the game. NFL (3 hours, 12 minutes) and college football (3 hours, 24 minutes) games take forever, but American sports fans are captivated because there is so much action when they actually do run a play. If you’re like the MLB and have a problem with both runtime and lack of action, you’ve got a two-pronged problem.

To address both sides of the challenge, the league implemented some of the biggest rules changes in the game’s history for the 2023 season.

Pitcher/Hitter Clock

• Why they are doing this: a 2019 SABR report suggested there is on average 44 minutes of extra time outside of play added to an MLB game. This rule seeks to cut into that downtime.

• Rule: Pitchers have 15 seconds to start the pitching motion when the bases are empty and 20 seconds to start when runners are on base (plus limited pickoff attempts — 2 per at-bat). Hitters are required to step into the batter’s box within the first 8 seconds.

• Rule: If the pitcher doesn’t comply with the rule, the batter will be awarded a ball. If the hitter doesn’t comply with the rule, the pitcher will be awarded a strike.

Banning Defensive Shifts

• Why they are doing this: defensive shifts (moving fielders into overloaded positions based upon a hitter’s tendencies to try to decrease the chances of a ball put in play being a hit) became the norm over the last several years and is a core tenet of many analytics-driven teams. Smart tactic by the defense, but it leads to less overall offense.

• Rule: Two infielders must be positioned on either side of second base when the pitch is released, and all four infielders must also have both feet within the infield when the pitcher is on rubber.

• For reference, this is what some of the more extreme shifts looked like (Carlos Correa is the shortstop — he is normally 15-20 feet to the left of second base and on the edge of the infield dirt).

Increased Base Sizes

• Why they are doing this: Expected to have a positive impact on player safety, but a shorter distance between bases also means more close plays, steals, and aggressive baserunning. Therefore, more action, baby.

• Rule: First base, second base and third base size is increased from 15 inches to 18 inches

MVP Results

We are now halfway through the season, and the initial results on the field have been overwhelmingly positive. Using official MLB calculations through May, we can see the overall impact the rule changes are having:

Pitcher/Hitter Clock

The average time of a nine-inning game is down from 3:03 last year to 2:36 this year, and the average time between pitches within an at-bat is averaging 4.7 fewer seconds per pitch.

So, the biggest psychological issue with baseball (“it’s such a longgg game”) is being addressed in a major way. Just watch this clip from Spring Training this year with the new rules in place compared to prior years.

Ban on Defensive Shifts

The league batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .297, the highest since 2019 (.298), and teams are averaging 4.58 runs per game, the highest in a 162-game season since 2019 (4.83).

This sounds good on the surface, but it’s important to note that it’s only for balls in play. Strikeouts continue to rise (up 2% from a year ago and 15% over the last decade), and most of the additional run production is being attributed to a 7% increase in home runs.

If the goal is to increase actual action on the field, this is not having the desired impact right now. That being said, I am optimistic on this one over the long term. Baseball is such an analytics driven game, and teams are constantly looking for minor competitive advantages that net out in incremental gains over the course of a 162-game season.

The biggest gains in BABIP have been on ground balls pulled to the right side by left-handed batters (35 point increase from last season), and overall BABIP has also increased significantly for left-handed hitters (.283 → .293). This makes sense, as teams are unable to position the extra infielders on the right side and in short right field like they were in prior years. There will probably need to be more data to do a full analysis, but my gut tells me there is an opportunity for teams to deploy left-handed hitters who can get on-base and exploit the rule change below.

For the fans, this hopefully means more overall balls put in play, which translates into more action and excitement.

Increased Base Size

This rule change has been excellent in terms of creating more action. Base stealing attempts are up 32% year-over-year (on pace for the highest number of attempts since 2011), and the increase in successful steals has jumped 6-7% to 80% (on pace for the highest successful attempts since 1987).

Knowing baseball teams, this will be something they look closely at and determine how much further they can push it. Everything on offense is about increasing how a team “manufactures” (scores) runs, which should mean more aggressiveness on the basepaths and, therefore, more excitement for the fans.

Money Moves

The on-field results above are also having an impact in the boardroom.

22 of the 30 MLB teams have seen increases in attendance year-over-year, and the MLB thinks this is not a fluke, as they are projecting that total attendance will be up 6-8% this year — a meaningful change of course for a sport that had its lowest attendance numbers since 1997 last year.

TV viewership is also showing signs of improvement. The MLB’s four national broadcast partners (Fox, FS1, ESPN, and TBS) are averaging 923,689 viewers per game, up 26% since last year, and the games should continue to draw more attention during the race to the playoffs in the second half.

Note that all of this is happening with five major market teams (Cubs, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, and Dodgers) all having average to mediocre seasons thus far. Any improvements from these clubs in the second part of the season should lead to some incremental gains in these figures.

Lastly, there is also a more intangible positive “feeling” about the game right now, and it self-perpetuates. The recognition and buzz that the MLB is making positive changes should attract new fans and get lapsed fans to potentially to re-engage, increasing the growth curve.

What’s On Deck?

Looking ahead, the positive results from the first half of the season should be celebrated but also serve signal to the MLB that it needs to grow even bolder in its focus on innovation. More rule changes (i.e., designated pinch runner) that bring more excitement to the game are good, but there is also a need for continued growth on the business side.

Baseball is a quirky game, and the stadiums themselves have a unique aura about them. It is unlikely in today’s day and age that most fans will attend all 81 home games and pay attention to every inning of every game, but the league can continue to rethink how the game is positioned to fans. Tapping into the game’s mystique and making the in-stadium experience a part of the community and a general social gathering spot can move the needle.

Additional creative game types (the London Series this year, a Negro Leagues tribute game next year, and the Field of Dreams game restarting next year) are excellent ways to achieve single game ratings boosts and potentially attract new fans, but getting them to stay will require more creativity.

Adam Grossman, VP of Business Insights & Analytics at Excel Sports, a prominent sports representation and marketing agency, lays out a few interesting examples of how clubs are improving the fan experience, and I believe additional promotions and activations that bring fans into the social experience of being at the ballpark will serve the league well.

Lastly, there is a ton of young star power in the game, and the league would be served well by trying to follow a similar model to the NBA where the consumers become equally invested in being fans of specific superstar players as well as fans of teams.

Prime example: for the love of all that is holy, please plaster Shohei Ohtani’s face across every city in the country and put every Angels game on national TV. It is criminal that more of the US sports fanbase doesn’t know who this guy is and what he’s doing — which has never been seen in the 150+ years of baseball.

To put this in non-baseball terms, this is the equivalent of Patrick Mahomes throwing for 400 yds and 4 TD’s a game while also averaging 10 tackles and a sack on defense.

We as sports fans love narratives and the truly amazing, and there’s not much more mind blowing than what “Shotime” is doing. Yell it from the rooftops about what is happening in Anaheim, please!

***rant over***

In closing, these rules changes are the right step for the MLB, and they must keep going. The fans will appreciate the league’s efforts to update the game, and the business will prosper as a result.

Keep taking big swings, Commissioner Manfred and team.

Impress Your Friends at a Cocktail Party

Want to show off your sports knowledge in a public setting but don’t have time to read the deep dive? This section is the CliffsNotes of this week’s topic

• Opener: To address some of the major long-term business headwinds its facing, the MLB implemented its biggest rules changes in years for the 2023 season to both shorten game times and bring more action on the field. They implemented a pitcher/hitter clock, a ban on defensive shifts, and increased the base sizes.

• Shot #1: The initial results on the field are positive. Average games times are down almost 30 minutes, stolen bases attempts and success rate are up, and there have been some minor gains in batting average on balls put in play.

• Shot #2: The impact is also positively impacting the bottom line. Total MLB attendance is projected to be up 6-8% this year, and viewership across the national broadcast partners is up 26% year over year.

• Chaser: The MLB needs to use this success as a springboard. The players and fans have shown the ability to embrace change, and they need to continue to innovate both on and off the field to change baseball’s trajectory.

“Whoa” of the Week

Insane, mind-blowing things constantly happen in the sports business world. Here was my favorite of the past week.

1. MLS making some noise with one of its marquee matchups

2. If you haven’t seen the Sphere in Las Vegas yet, check this out. The Madison Square Garden-owned venue is truly bananas.

Weekly Reminder that Sports are Awesome

This newsletter is, of course, mostly centered on the business side of sports and the things that happen off the field. That being said, it’s important to remember why we fell in love with sports in the first place, though.

This section is meant to highlight the amazing things that happened in sports this week that serve as that reminder.

1. Ernie Johnson is not only one of the best announcers/media personalities in sports; he’s also one of the best people in the business. Check out the moment when his Inside the NBA co-host, Charles Barkley, delivers the news that Johnson has been inducted into the Sports Broadcasting Hall of Fame.

Thanks for reading! Let me know what feedback you have.

Also, if you enjoyed this breakdown, please consider sharing it with your friends and network by clicking the social media icons at the top of the newsletter.

Until next time, sports fans!

-Alex